First off a nice guy from 2+2 simply sent me his database. It is important to understand that the data in my DB contains:
- Hands I have bought. most of the 50NL+ data comes from that source
- Hands I have received from a user on 2+2. All of the stakes smaller than 50nl comes from that source
- 50 NL data I played myself
I think this is relevant because the data 1 user sees vs the data dataminer collects will be different in that data from the data miner will be more broad.
Another thing to note is that the Nr. of hands is higher than Nr. of hands I actually imported. The data you see is aggregated user data. I imported data into poker tracker 3 (takes a few days) and then exported the user data into a different tool that lets me run data better and do my own calculations.
So one hand that I import can potentially be seen by 9 users and thus get me a hand count of up to 9.
Lets look at a two questions:
1. How many winners?
There is no simple answer to that. In fact I don't think I can answer that question unless I had all the data available to me. But I can show you what my data says.
2. How much is raked vs won
So now lets look at how much money are people actually taking home.
The easiest way to understand this as a %-tage:
What could we do to have a system that workes well for 2006, 2012 and forever in the future.
I think there is a simple answer. Stop raking hands and rake the money transfer. Have sites keep a %-take of the money that is transfered and make that more even across the levels. We could still rake hands to collect the money not as radically so long as we make sure that the balance overall is not broken (i.e. via regulation).
Now lets look at the 2k winners above. Over 2k hands already 20% of players become losers due to the rake alone. Those are the small winners. Think about turning these from losers to winners. That would make way more loyal customers. It would broaden the economy. If we could then also prevent rake abuse we should get a very healthy and growing economy. Think about the share of winners that the rake will turn to losers when we play 50k+ hands.
I think this is something that we as players need to focus on. We need to demand two things:
1. the right to play
2. the right to a fair market
When I look at regulation it is very important to me that part two of this equation is thought of as well. I hope I can make some of you aware of this as well.